1 Nov 2019
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Kovalev v Canelo – A Good Fight?
Canelo Alvarez, the world middleweight champion, jumps two weight classes to challenge WBO light-heavyweight champion, Sergey Kovalev, in a Las Vegas 12-rounder bursting with intrigue.
But Canelo – the sport’s biggest star who’s no stranger to having this his own way in the boxing world – will have weighed up the risk vs reward scale carefully before opting for what on the surface, and to the untrained eye, would appear a highly audacious move.
The History
Not so long ago the Russian was one of the most feared fighters in the sport. But Kovalev, at 36, is not the force he was a few years ago nor is he regarded as the best fighter in his division.
Three losses (two to Andre Ward and one to Eleider Alvarez) in the space of two years suggested a decline but he has found some decent form over the last 12 months: He gained impressive revenge over Alvarez and also defeated Britain’s Anthony Yarde as recently as August.
Both victories came after he switched trainers, and under the tutelage of Hall Of Famer Buddy McGirt – renowned for getting the most out of ageing forces – the Russian has developed new smarts and wisdom.
Canelo, meanwhile, has got better and better (and better still) in that time. And considering he was very good in the first place his upward trajectory, that has seen the likes of Gennady Golovkin and Daniel Jacobs beaten, could be an ominous one for Kovalev.
Even so, though he tested the waters at super-middleweight when he thrashed Britain’s overmatched Rocky Fielding last December, stepping into the 175lbs weight class for the first time against someone as accomplished as “Krusher” is by no means a guaranteed recipe for success.
A History Lesson
Plenty of middleweights have failed to negotiate the move to light-heavyweight successfully. Perhaps the most famous case involves the greatest of them all, Sugar Ray Robinson.
Way back in 1952, Robinson, a maestro of extreme proportions, stepped up in New York and challenged light-heavyweight king, Joey Maxim. The story goes that Robinson gave in to the excessive heat in a rasping hot Yankee Stadium and lost a fight he was winning after 13 rounds.
Truth is, Maxim had to cope with those extreme conditions, too. The bigger man, as they so often do, won the fight.
The moral is don’t write Kovalev off.
Can Kovalev Win?
Absolutely. His jab, particularly in his later years, has been his most prolific weapon. If he can fire it regularly and without fear, Canelo will immediately find himself being pushed back.
He had some of the toughest moments of his career when faced with Gennady Golovkin’s jab so it follows that if Kovalev can get his lead motoring, Canelo will struggle.
Furthermore, Kovalev remains a huge puncher. If the occasional right hand – which is one of Sergey’s most fearsome weapons – finds the target, Canelo may regret his decision to challenge the bigger man.
One last thing for the benefit of this report to consider – Kovalev bullies fighters who can’t keep up. Canelo, for all his ability, likes to be conservative with his output.
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Are The Odds Right?
Canelo is a pretty big favourite in most markets.
His youth and ambition are huge factors but so too is the fact he’s only ever lost one fight in Vegas. The judges love him, the promoters love him. In a close fight, he’s never failed to win. Even in his sole loss, to Floyd Mayweather back in 2014, one judge scored the fight level when he had clearly lost.
Aside from all that, he’s an excellent fighter with natural ability on his side. He’s defensively brilliant and his offensive skills are criminally underrated. The Mexican’s raids to the body are rarely wasted and his thick physique shouldn’t struggle with the extra mass.
Best Bets
THE draw, as high as 33-1 for some, is worth considering but this doesn’t have the look of a fight that will be nip and tuck all the way.
Whoever wins, it seems likely the conclusion will be clear in the early going; either Kovalev will obviously be too big from the start or Canelo’s all-conquering explosiveness will make itself clear.
If you fancy Kovalev, there’s money to be made. But an early finish seems unlikely. The Russian in the late rounds, as Canelo fades from exhaustion, is perhaps the best bet if you fancy the upset.
However, Canelo, even considering all his size disadvantages, to win is rightly where the money is going. Some have suggested that Alvarez will raid the body and break Kovalev down to score the stoppage but looking at the favourite’s recent record shows a lack of inside-schedule wins.
It’s far from a certainty, but Canelo on points is arguably the best bet of them all.
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