12 Jun 2019
Argentina got to Russia by the skin of their teeth, coming from behind to beat Ecuador with a Lionel Messi hat-trick to win 3-1 and claim the final qualifying sport out of the South American group.
The lack of goals in qualification was troubling – just 19 in 18 games, and like Egypt’s reliance on Mo Salah, Argentina are half a side without the mercurial Barcelona forward, which was underlined by a 4-2 loss to Nigeria in November and a 6-1 drubbing by Spain in March when Messi was sidelined.
While Group D is a tough one, comprising Croatia and Nigeria, if they top it, their Round of 16 match could well be against Peru.
However, they have played just one friendly since that thrashing in Madrid in March, so Jorge Sampaoli’s side may be rusty.
Given the form of Sampaoli’s side, Argentina v Iceland has the potential to provide some shock value.
Iceland, who knocked England out of Euro 2016, make their World Cup debut on Saturday. They arrive after overcoming a difficult qualifying group that contained Croatia, Ukraine and Turkey, but seven wins in 10 games was enough to take the only automatic qualifying spot from their group.
However, since qualifying, they have not won any of their six friendlies.
It is likely that Iceland will employ a compact 4-4-1-1 formation with Gylfi Sigurddson having a roving role behind striker Alfred Finnbogason, while Sampaoli will counter with a more attacking 4-2-3-1 diamond formation, that allows full-backs Nicolas Tagliafico and Eduardo Silva to bomb on and support Messi.
While this will be the first meeting of the two nations, the Group D betting odds suggest that Argentina are the favourites. They are also fifth favourites to win the tournament, according to the World Cup outright betting odds.
Iceland are the outsiders to qualify from the group and are 11/10 to finish bottom of the quartet.
Verdict:
Argentina 0-0 Iceland - the Correct Score Odds are 8/1.
Iceland have shown in the past that they can make life very difficult for those even at the highest level. Argentina’s lack of effectiveness in front of goal is troubling, as is their lack of preparation for this tournament. We think this could end in a stalemate.
Check out all the latest odds for Argentina v Iceland
