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WGC Dell Technologies Matchplay Betting Tips
Picking a winner takes a slightly different strategy owing to the new format, and we’ll look simply for those with good form in Texas, good current form and those players who have had previous notable experience of the match play format.
The draw is imperative to call upon, as some players face lighter than expected runs to the quarter-finals, and at that stage it really is anybody’s to take.
Jon Rahm 12/1
Despite some obviously tricky opponents, Jon Rahm (12/1) will be relatively happy with his group as he faces Ryan Palmer, Shane Lowry and Sebastian Munoz.
The latter has shown glimpses of promise but can rarely sustain form over an entire event, as each of his last four made cuts has seen the opening round as his lowest score, and while he’s one of the better Par 5 players on the tour, the fact that there are only three around this course won’t help his cause.
Lowry showed what he was made of with a strong performance at the Players to finish in a tie for ninth, though consistency is again an issue for the Irishman, who is yet to make it out of the groups at this event.
Ryan Palmer poses the biggest threat, though Rahm’s quality should see him through the groups at the very least. The Spaniard has top 10 finishes in half of his Texas events, including a defeat in the final on debut here four years ago.
He’s been nothing if not consistent with his new clubs this season, with five top-10’s from seven events, and looks as though he’s gearing up for a big win in the near future.
Whether that comes here or in the weeks ahead, a run to the quarterfinals would come by avoiding any of the top 12 in the rankings, with Daniel Berger the most likely last-16 opponent, and the American has a poor W1-L8 record here in Austin, so we’re happy to take him on.
Sungjae Im 28/1
The second pick of the week comes from someone who will likely have to get past the world number one if he wants to land any profit for his outright backers, which has seen his price drift out enough to get behind.
Sungjae Im (28/1) is always worth consideration when on his favoured Bermuda Greens, and for all his inconsistency so far, he has shown glimmers of brilliance over the last month which culminated in a top-10 finish at the Honda Classic last week. Only Jason Kokrak and Doug Ghim made fewer bogeys than the South Korean at the Players, which has always been a strong indicator of success here, and this format will likely cater to his tendency to drop multiple shots in a single hole, with those slip-ups far less damning here.
It looks like Russell Henley will be the biggest challenge in their group, and the outcome could come down to their matchup on Wednesday, though if the 22-year-old can come up trumps in that, he looks well priced to build some momentum and take on an out of sorts Dustin Johnson in the last-16, who has finished T48-T54 in his last two events.
Max Homa 66/1
Another who is in decent nick and bound to climb the rankings this season is Max Homa (66/1). While the new format has proven to tailor to the world’s best players, there’s no certainty that the top seeds are going to qualify from each group, with that outcome only occurring in 36% of groups over the last four years, with the third lowest seed in each group qualifying in nearly a quarter of all groups.
What’s more, three of the four winners since the format change had won in one of their previous four starts, with Bubba Watson’s triumph coming after he’d won at the Genesis Open, just as Homa did a little over a month ago.
The American has three top 10’s from his last five starts, and was a standout match play player in the amateurs. His draw is favourable, with Collin Morikawa also on debut here, while a last-16 meeting with Viktor Hovland is likely, who is also on debut.
While those two players have proven recently that they can certainly go well here, Homa provides much better value at the prices.
Jordan Speith 25/1
The final pick goes in the way of 49th seed Jordan Spieth (25/1), who would be seeded in the top 24 based solely on world rankings from 2021, but his form last season leaves him as the lowest seeded player in his group.
It’s therefore incredibly fortuitous that his group is Matt Fitzpatrick, Matt Wolff and Corey Conners. The former is by no means an easy opponent and he has been there or thereabouts with six top-20 finishes from his last seven events, including a win in Dubai back in December.
He does have a poor record here though, going W4-L8 and Spieth looks to be playing the kind of golf that could topple the group favourite.
Matt Wolff has struggled massively for consistency this season, and while Corey Conners is exceptional from tee-to-green, he’s often unable to hold his nerve with the putter, which can’t stand him in good stead here.
The other groups in the quarter see Players champions Justin Thomas, who’s been dealt a group of death as he faces three of the four best players around Austin, while Patrick Reed also has a tricky run.
If JT was to qualify, that could be an exceptional last-16 match up with Spieth, though there are a lot of things that can go wrong in this quarter and the three-time major champion looks the best bet for us in this side of the draw.
Group 3: Jon Rahm Win At 19/20
Jon Rahm E/W At 12/1 (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Max Homa E/W At 66/1 (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Group 15: Jordan Spieth Win At 6/4
Jordan Spieth E/W At 25/1 (1/4 odds, 4 places)
Group 16: Sung-Jae Im Win At 6/4
Sung-Jae Im E/W At 28/1 (1/4 odds, 4 places)
WGC MATCHPLAY ODDS AVAILABLE HERE
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ODDS ARE CORRECT AS OF 23/03/2020 HOWEVER ARE SUBJECT TO FLUCTUATIONS
