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The Masters Trends
With the Masters the only Major to be played at the same course every year, it lends itself to a trends-based approach for betting, and we’ve picked out five of the key trends that tend to make a Masters champion.
Top 35 – At Augusta, the cream tends to rise to the top. It’s almost a given than one of the world’s best is going to don the green jacket come Sunday, with 33 of the last 35 winners coming from the top 35 in the rankings. Zach Johnson and Angel Cabrera in 2007 and 2009, respectively, are the only two to buck that trend.
Played Augusta at least twice – While in recent years we’ve seen a couple of exceptions to this trend, course experience is without doubt a key contributor to coming up trumps here. Only three players (Tiger Woods, Jordan Spieth, and Danny Willett) have won without having played twice before since Nick Faldo in 1989.
Younger than 40 – Tiger Woods was the first player in the 21st century to win the Masters when in their 40s, though Tiger is very much an exception to the rule in many instances and this is no different. Mark O’Meara was the last player before Woods to win in his 40s back in 1998.
Top five finish – Although this discounts many of the world’s top 35, 24 of the 39 winners (62%) in the Bentgrass Era have had a top five finish at Augusta prior to their victory, including six of the last nine winners.
Made the cut last year – Knowing you had a good round last year to build on is imperative here, with only Tiger Woods in 1997 and Patrick Reed in 2018 managing to win the Masters having missed the cut in their previous attempt, though Woods was still an amateur in his 1996 missed cut.
With that in mind, the following table illustrates which of the top 35 players in World Golf fit the criteria and where the value might lie for the weekend:
Player | World Ranking | Played Masters at least twice | Younger than 40 | Top-5 Masters finish | Made Cut last time round | Total | Odds |
Dustin Johnson | 1 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 4 | 9/1 |
Jon Rahm | 2 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 4 | 10/1 |
Justin Thomas | 3 | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | 3 | 12/1 |
Collin Morikawa | 4 | No | Yes | No | No | 1 | 33/1 |
Rory McIlroy | 5 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 4 | 12/1 |
Bryson DeChambeau | 6 | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | 3 | 8/1 |
Xander Schauffele | 7 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 4 | 14/1 |
Webb Simpson | 8 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 4 | 33/1 |
Patrick Cantlay | 9 | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | 3 | 25/1 |
Tyrrell Hatton | 10 | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | 3 | 28/1 |
Patrick Reed | 11 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 4 | 28/1 |
Brooks Koepka | 12 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 4 | 16/1 |
Daniel Berger | 13 | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | 3 | N/A |
Matt Wolff | 14 | No | Yes | No | No | 1 | 40/1 |
Adam Scott | 15 | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | 3 | 50/1 |
Tommy Fleetwood | 16 | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | 3 | 45/1 |
Tony Finau | 17 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 4 | 28/1 |
Louis Oosthuizen | 18 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 4 | 55/1 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick | 19 | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | 3 | 66/1 |
Hideki Matsuyama | 20 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 4 | 40/1 |
Paul Casey | 21 | Yes | No | Yes | No | 2 | 66/1 |
Abraham Ancer | 22 | No | Yes | No | No | 1 | 100/1 |
Sungjae Im | 23 | No | Yes | No | No | 1 | 80/1 |
Viktor Hovland | 24 | No | Yes | No | Yes | 2 | N/A |
Jason Kokrak | 25 | No | Yes | No | No | 1 | 100/1 |
Marc Leishman | 26 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | 4 | 175/1 |
Justin Rose | 27 | Yes | No | Yes | No | 2 | 55/1 |
Matt Kuchar | 28 | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | 3 | 125/1 |
Shane Lowry | 29 | Yes | Yes | No | No | 2 | 100/1 |
Scottie Scheffler | 30 | No | Yes | No | No | 1 | 66/1 |
Gary Woodland | 31 | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | 3 | 100/1 |
Tiger Woods | 32 | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | 3 | 35/1 |
Ryan Palmer | 33 | Yes | No | No | Yes | 2 | N/A |
Kevin Kisner | 34 | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | 3 | 150/1 |
Harris English | 35 | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | 3 | N/A |
Masters Betting Tips And Favourites
As a rule of thumb, Augusta National plays heavily into the hands of the best Scramblers and those who make the most Greens in Regulation (GIR).
Indeed, last year alone, of the 11 players who finished tied-9th or better, eight ranked in the top 10 for scrambling while one of the exceptions was Tiger, who didn’t need to scramble having ranked first for GIR over the week.
14 of the last 18 winners at Augusta have ranked in the top six for GIR while nine of the last 10 have been top-10 scramblers, so the evidence is pretty telling.
In recent years, since the introduction of Strokes Gained statistics, one in particular has seemed to characterise more Masters winners than anything else.
Each of the last five victors here have finished in the top three for Strokes Gained: Approach, while if Rose had toppled Garcia in 2017, four of those five would have led the way in that regard.
While the course is expected to play a little longer than usual due to the time of year, which would ultimately favour the bombers like Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Cameron Champ, and Rory McIlroy, there’s no ignoring the fact that the best Iron players in the game have the upper hand here, which leads us perfectly into our first pick of the week.
Justin Thomas
We’ve said before that Justin Thomas (12/1) should almost blindly go in to any tournament on US soil as favourite, and although that needs much more consideration at the Majors (and especially here at Augusta), he looks well placed to pick up his first Green Jacket from his friend and practice partner Tiger Woods.
There are very few that would strongly disagree with the statement: ‘JT is the best Iron player in the world’, statistically speaking at the very least.
His Strokes Gained: Approach rankings on tour speak for themselves, climbing year-on-year until he moved from second to first in 2020, ranking in the top six every year since 2017.
The American fits three of the four course trends and while he is yet to achieve a top-5 finish at Augusta, he’s yet to miss the cut and improved every year, going 39-22-17-12.
What’s more, it’s not as though his approach play lets him down at all here, ranking 11th, sixth, second and third in GIR, respectively across his four appearances here.
His recent form is to be admired too with eight top-10 finishes from 13 events since the tour restart in June.
He missed out narrowly to Patrick Cantlay at the Zozo in his last outing and was unlucky not to win the Workday back in June too, but a win at the St. Jude Invitational where he scrambled beautifully around the final holes to hold off Brooks Koepka shows he has the nerve when it comes down to it and at 12/1 we’re happy to get behind him.
Webb Simpson
Our next pick goes to a player that often floats under the radar and the media rarely give him any hype, though Webb Simpson (33/1) is every bit a top player as the biggest names in the sport.
His stats speak for themselves. The American had the best putting average on tour last year, which is the coup de grace on a phenomenal all-round game.
While his distance off the tee isn’t incredible, he’s hit over 2/3rds of his fairways since the beginning of last season, including 83.9% at Augusta last year.
He’s followed that up with improved iron play ranking 6th for Strokes Gained: Approach last year, while he’s ranked 2nd and 12th on tour for scrambling in 2019 and 2020, respectively, ranking fifth in that regard here last year.
That’s a lot to take in, though in truth it just means Webb’s all round game is continuously improving and certainly has enough to challenge again.
He fits all five course trends after his 5th placed finish last year, while he has 14 top-20 finishes from his 18 events since August last year, finishing in the top-10 in half of those, including victories either side of the enforced break in the season so at such a long price we think he’s been overlooked and is worth an each-way shout.
Tony Finau
There are numerous other players to consider in what is one of the most open Masters in recent memory, though it’s Tony Finau (28/1) who looks to hold the best value among the rest.
He’s slowly built up his form in recent months, with seven top-15 finishes in his last 10 events, with five of those being top-10s.
While he’s still waiting for his first victory since October 2018, his Major form has come on leaps and bounds too and it’s only a matter of time before he picks up another title. Indeed, he’s managed top-10 finishes in seven of his last 10 Majors.
With the course playing slightly longer this week, Finau should be one to take advantage, ranking first for Driving Distance here last year. The main factor swaying us toward the big American is his form here.
Two top 10 finishes in two starts, including one when playing on a dodgy ankle and a tie for 5th last year shows he has what it takes to battle the big guns. The course suits him down to a T, and at the prices looks a good bet to carry on his form.
Bryson DeChambeau
Others to consider include market leader Bryson DeChambeau (8/1). He’s been teasing fans with a new 48-inch driver and is undoubtedly the biggest hitter on tour at the moment.
While he’s far from just a bomber with the big stick and has drastically improved his all-round game there’s a major factor that has worked against him in the past and may just work against him here too.
Of the 58 players who have played eight or more rounds at Augusta over the last three years, DeChambeau ranks dead last for Strokes Gained: Putting.
That will largely be down to his reliance on Green Reading books on tour, which won’t be allowed at Augusta and is arguably the main reason for a 21-38-29 record on this course and considering he’s played just once in the last seven weeks, 8/1 seems far too short.
Dustin Johnson
Dustin Johnson (9/1) is very difficult to look past. After a shaky start to his Masters career, he’s now achieved four successive top-10 finishes here and fits all five course trends here as a result.
The World Number One has six top-10 finishes from as many events now though, like DeChambeau, has played just once in the last seven weeks having tested positive for Coronavirus and missing two very strong events during an 11-day isolation period.
Houston showed he was still playing some of the best golf of his career, though that wasn’t the most telling of warm-up events and question marks need to be raised over what effect that ‘time-out’ from the game has had, so again looks slightly short.
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy (12/1) can stake serious claims here. What a story it would be if the Northern Irishman could produce a historic victory.
McIlroy needs to add the Masters to his cabinet to achieve a career Grand Slam, and is showing signs of returning to form. Before COVID-19 enforced a break in golf, the former World Number One had achieved seven consecutive top-5 finishes, though he returned as a different player which could be largely due to his focus being on the imminent birth of his first child.
He went eight tournaments without a top-10 when the season restarted, though a seventh at the Tour Championship followed by eighth at the US Open was more like the McIlroy of old.
Since then no player has made more birdies on tour than over the last two weeks and again without much consistency to his game there are players better priced, though we wouldn’t bat an eyelid if he were to fight it out for the Green Jacket come Sunday evening.
Masters Best Bets
John Rahm (10/1), Xander Schauffele (14/1), Brooks Koepka (16/1), Patrick Cantlay (25/1), Hideki Matsuyama (25/1), Patrick Reed (28/1) and Tyrell Hatton (28/1) are among a host of names worth keeping an eye on, as are debutants Collin Morikawa (33/1) and Matt Wolff (40/1) and all have cases to be made in their favour, though at the prices Justin Thomas (12/1), Tony Finau (28/1) and Webb Simpson (33/1) look to hold the most value in what promises to be a tantalising weekend of golf.
Justin Thomas (E/W) At 12/1 (1/5 odds, 7 places)
Tony Finau (E/W) At 28/1 (1/5 odds, 7 places)
Webb Simpson (E/W) At 33/1 (1/5 odds, 7 places)
ODDS FOR THE MASTERS AVAILABLE HERE
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ODDS ARE CORRECT AS OF 11/11/2020 HOWEVER ARE SUBJECT TO FLUCTUATIONS
