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About TPC Deere Run
TPC Deere Run is a par-71 that plays to 7,268 yards, so is by no means one of the longer courses on tour and history would support the theory that accurate drivers and top iron players go well here, though it’s the short game that really picks a winner here.
Indeed, the last three winners have all ranked the top two for Strokes Gained: Putting, with the last five all ranking in the top 10, while three of the last four winners all led the field in scrambling, including Dylan Frittelli in the most recent edition two years ago.
John Deere Classic Betting Tips
Hank Lebioda 40/1
That brings us to our first pick in Hank Lebioda (40/1). The American missed the cut in his only ever appearance around TPC Deere Run back in 2019, though he’s showing some much better form heading into this renewal than he was two years ago when he had figures of 51st-34th-CUT, as opposed to his current form of 31st-5th-4th.
Two of his best ever weeks on tour with a fifth placed finish at the Travellers was then backed up with another top five last week at the Rocket Mortgage, where he finished just one stroke off the winner.
Most notably it was his short game that had him in the mix at the weekend as he ranked third for scrambling and fourth for putting average.
That wasn’t just a one off either as only Webb Simpson and Patrick Cantlay have scrambled better than Lebioda on tour this year, and with neither of them playing this week, the 27-year-old should head into this with serious confidence.
Charles Howell III 66/1
Another player who fits the mould here is Charles Howell III (66/1), and while he has the stats on tour this year to go well, he can also back it up with some course pedigree.
He already has a top-10 and a top-5 finish around Deere Run, including last year when he finished sixth, while he also has shown some good consistency here of late, recording under par rounds in each of his last nine here, averaging 3.5 under par per round across his last two starts, including two six under 65s and an eight under 63.
The American ranks fifth for scrambling on tour this year and also ranked fifth in that metric here two years ago, so he certainly has what it takes to go well. There is a strong statistical trend between Deere Run and Silverado where Howell finished fourth in his last visit at the Safeway Open two years ago.
He comes into this off the back of a couple of poor outings, though that’s certainly reflected in his price, and he could be worth a punt here.
Zach Johnson 40/1
The final pick on the PGA tour this weekend goes to a former winner here in Zach Johnson (40/1), and while on the surface his form at the moment is nothing to write home, some underlying stats and his pedigree here make him extremely difficult to ignore.
Horses for courses has never rung truer than Johnson and John Deere as he’s now made 12 consecutive cuts here, with seven of his last 11 rounds seeing him finish in the top-5, and six top-3 finishes so there’s little doubt his game suits this course down to a tee.
His form this season has not been nearly his best, with just one top 10 finish so far, though four made cuts in his last six, with one of the exceptions coming at the long Kiawah Island which doesn’t suit his style at all, are good signs going into this.
In his last outing at the Travelers saw him hit 78.6% of his fairways, ranking fourth for that metric, while his scrambling was also on point as he ranked fifth.
His last made cut before that at the Charles Schwab saw him lead the field in putting average, so his underlying stats certainly bode well for him here and in a much weaker field, this is the perfect opportunity for him to make a push for his first title since the 2015 Open.
JOHN DEERE CLASSIC ODDS AVAILABLE HERE
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ODDS ARE CORRECT AS OF 07/07/2021 HOWEVER ARE SUBJECT TO FLUCTUATIONS
