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Charles Schwab Favourites
Jordan Spieth goes off favourite here, followed closely in the market by world number 2 Justin Thomas and former PGA Championship winner Collin Morikawa, and rightly so.
This course requires accuracy on some thin, tree-lined fairways, though it’s really players with serious approach play that tend to do well here, and if they can cover that with some solid putting then you’re going right to the top of that leader board.
Indeed, each of the last three winners (as well as last years’ play-off loser Morikawa) all ranked n the top three for strokes gained: approach, while each of the last four winners have all ranked in the top four for greens in regulation.
Precision off the tee is always going to stand you in good stead, though the difference is going to made on approach here so it’s no surprise to see that American trio head up the market.
Charles Schwab Betting Tips
All three of those players rank in the top 20 for strokes gained: approaching the green this season on tour, and while Morikawa and Thomas rank first and third, respectively, Spieth is only down in 20th from his poor start to the year and has been one of the finest approach players to ever grace the game.
Jordan Spieth 10/1
While Thomas and Morikawa both produced top-10 finishes in their last appearance here, that was both their debuts and we’d rather opt for the player who has the experience and proven touch to navigate their local course, and a straight up win bet for Jordan Spieth (10/1) looks the way to go even at a short price.
His previous visits here speak for themselves as he’s gone 7-14-2-1-2-32-8-10 from his eight visits, while even managed top-10 finishes in his most recent two events despite being nowhere near the top of his game.
As a Texas local, it’s little surprise that he goes well here and this is his last chance to get his hands on a trophy in his home state this year.
He ranked in the top four for putting average in four of his last five visits, including his most recent two and that knowledge of these bent-grass greens is going to serve him incredibly well, and for that reason he gets our backing to just pip it.
Sergio Garcia 66/1
It’s likely that the winner is going to come from one of those three players, though there’s reason to believe Phil Mickelson’s PGA Championship victory has inspired some of the older players on tour, and one of them could very well be Sergio Garcia (66/1).
Jon Rahm previously mentioned the similarities between Colonial and Valderrama in Spain, and statistically speaking he may be on to something with Justin Rose and Garcia winners at both, while Bernhard Langer was a play-off away from making that three.
It is true that Garcia has now missed four consecutive cuts, though in truth that’s never really perturbed the man and recently his victories have often come slightly out of the blue.
Indeed, his most recent victory at the Sanderson Farms came off the back of two missed cuts, the most recent being a major, he’d gone 67-40-MC-23 prior to his win before that, and he’d missed seven of 13 cuts before winning at Valderrama in 2018.
This is certainly a course that can play to the Spaniard’s strengths, as he likes to work the ball in different directions on a course loaded with doglegs. He’s managed three top 20 finishes in his last four visits and is certainly worth an each way shout at his price.
Rory Sabbatini 125/1
The final pick goes the way of former top-10 player Rory Sabbatini (125/1). The Slovak loves playing in Texas and although his recent form around all courses is sporadic at best, that’s factored into his price and he’s now made nine consecutive cuts in the state, including three top-15 finishes, and two top-six finishes in his last five starts.
He’s another former winner here at Colonial having won the Crown Plaza Invitational in 2007, with his five recent outings here reading 10-MC-20-6-14.
His last appearance was at the Byron Nelson, also in Texas, where he shot three rounds of 68 or better, including on the final day where he ranked 12th in the field so at a long price, he’s worth a little flutter on a course that he’s got proven pedigree on.