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The Course
This Greg Norman designed course is intended to resemble a links track, with natural undulations accompanied by a hot climate supposedly providing a real challenge to even the world’s elite. None of that proved to be true last year as Antoine Rozner stormed home with a score of -25, as players were able to make light work of a new course on the circuit.
That, to some degree, nullifies the advances skillset of the likes of Casey and Fleetwood over the field, as it’s when players are truly tested that the elite players stand up to be counted, so it’s almost worth avoiding them at their current prices and looking for greater value further down the market.
Wide, forgiving fairways and large, findable greens mean every player in the field is able to find their greens in regulation with some level of comfortability, and it’s really a competition of who’s the hottest with the putter in hand this week.
The Fire Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates boast greens of a natural bermudagrass hybrid and plays slightly slower than Jumeirah’s more iconic Earth Course, though that’s not exactly saying much, and we can still expect some serious pace in these desert conditions.
Dubai Championship Contenders
Tom Lewis
While there’s not much to go off in terms of course pedigree, UAE form is still a great indicator here.
Rozner’s victory here came at the start of a strong patch of form in the Middle East, going 1-36-16-9-26-1 across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, and on that basis is Tom Lewis that takes our fancy for this one.
The Englishman has top-10s in half of his last eight starts in the UAE, and while he also has a few missed cuts in this neck of the woods, his price more than caters for those off weeks.
His current form is certainly nothing to write home about, and his place on the PGA Tour is very much up in the air at the moment, though he came into this stretch last year in a similar vein of poor form before coming 23rd in the Tour Championship, though he only finished that low owing to a poor opening round, and he was among the best players in the field over the final three days.
The year before that in Dubai, he finished sixth, and had the fewest putts per round of anyone in the field that year, so it’s safe to say he’s got a good read of greens around here.
Confidence will be the big killer for Lewis, though these conditions certainly bring out his best golf and with the prices surrounding him at the moment, he’s worth getting with an each way shout.
Andy Sullivan
Our second bet goes the way of another Englishman in Andy Sullivan, who will be determined to avenge his final round of last year by putting on a show this week, and he really needs to.
A strong week for Sullivan will guarantee him a place in the DP World Tour Championship, and based on his performance her last year he’s certainly got a strong chance.
He was leading after each of the first three days before a final round of 70 saw him drop back to a tie of second behind Rozner.
His stats across the board were incredibly solid, with his approach play and green work particularly impressive last year and that should give him confidence heading into the same course.
He’s proven over his career that performance was far from a one off, with his form in the Middle East extremely good.
He’s made six consecutive cuts in the UAE, including three top-10s, while he also has six consecutive made cuts in Qatar to highlight how much he loves these conditions.
Again, his recent form leaves a lot to be desired, though we’d expect his best golf to come out once again here and he’s worth getting behind.
Victor Perez
Finally, while Rozner is no doubt capable here, it’s his compatriot that we like the look of more. Victor Perez has a top-five finish in the Middle East already this year with his performance at the Saudi International, and while his last two showings in the UAE have resulted in a missed cut and a tie for 46th, prior to that he went 7-16-2-20 so he’s certainly got pedigree here, if not specifically here at fire.
Unlike the others, Perez comes into this off the back of a strong showing in his last event, with an eighth placed finish at the Portugal Masters, and that certainly sets him up nicely for this week, especially as he ranked third in the field for Putting Average that week.
He goes off at a similar price to Rozner, and while both need to be considered, Perez looks to have more of that cutting edge and looks the better of the picks for us.
PREDICTIONS:
TOM LEWIS E/W
ANDY SULLIVAN E/W
VICTOR PEREZ E/W
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