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New FedEx Scoring System
The new FedEx scoring system that was implemented last year gives an unholy advantage to the best players on tour this year, with Dustin Johnson starting a whopping 10 shots ahead of the players who just managed to scrape into the top 30. The starting scores are as follows:
Starting Score | Players |
-10 | Dustin Johnson |
-8 | Jon Rahm |
-7 | Justin Thomas |
-6 | Webb Simpson |
-5 | Collin Morikawa |
-4 | Daniel Berger, Harris English, Bryson DeChambeau, Sung-jae Im, Hideki Matsuyama |
-3 | Brendon Todd, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Xander Schauffele, Sebastian Munoz |
-2 | Lanto Griffin, Scottie Scheffler, Joaquin Niemann, Tyrell Hatton, Tony Finau |
-1 | Kevin Kisner, Abraham Ancer, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Na, Marc Leishman |
Even | Cameron Smith, Viktor Hovland, Mac Hughes, Cameron Champ, Billy Horschel |
For the purposes of our betting, we’d prefer to ignore the starting scores and the respective applied odds for this weekend. DJ sits at just 9/5 due to his advantage, with Jon Rahm at 14/5 in behind, and the fact that we’ve only got a sample of one year to go off, we’re certainly not comfortable backing odds that low when it’s relatively unknown just how instrumental that advantage is.
Indeed, Rory McIlroy won this last year despite starting at five under, winning by a four-shot margin over Xander Schauffele, with starting leader Justin Thomas coming in third. Dustin Johnson finished in T29th place 12 months ago despite starting on -3, though going 15 over on the par fours was the fifth consecutive year he shot over par for par fours and until he sorts that out he’d be hard pressed to pick up the best 72 hole score.
Tour Championship Betting Tips
In theory, the 26 players at five under or below could be where to look for a bet here. They’ll be playing with far less pressure than those at the top of the leaderboard, while the players around four or three under will still feel that they are just a solid round or two from being in contention.
Sung-jae Im
It’s on this basis that we come to our first pick at a seriously hefty price in Sung-jae Im (66/1). The young South Korean loves playing on Bermuda grass like this and could really come into his own here.
He’s already won at the Honda Classic on Bermuda this year, while he’s also picked up second and third place finishes too. In fact, he’s finished in the top 10 in half of his tournaments on this grass type this season, and at such a long price he’s worth a flutter to finish the season well.
Driving is particularly important here at East Lake as it’s a long par 70, which showed as McIlroy and Schauffele provided the goods in a 1-2 finish last year, and Im has gained strokes off the tee in 19 of 22 tournaments since this event last year. He finished in midtable 19th last year, though was three shots worse off than he is now having started on -1 and he wasn’t driving as accurately then as he has been since so, he looks to hold tremendous value.
Tony Finau
Our second pick comes a little further down the pecking order, which should suit him to a tee. At two under, Tony Finau can play nearly pressure free on a course that he’s performed admirably on in recent years.
A 7-15-7 record isn’t bad going, and his form going into this should give him a lot of momentum. He has four top 10 finishes in his last six events, including three top fives. The enforced break in the season seems to have done wonders for his putting too as he’s hit fewer than 30 putts per round in each of his eight made cuts since the return.
His starting position here should really loosen him up, which could add a fair few yards onto his drive and really do him a favour around a long and difficult course. Two of his three top five finishes came at Harding Park for the PGA Championship, and last weekend at Olympia Fields, both of which were also long and tricky par 70 courses, so he can definitely improve his game when the conditions demand it.
While the American is yet to win in nearly two years, he’s certainly worth an each way shout here at 18/1 in such a small field when excluding the starting strokes.
Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele is certainly worth having a look at too. He’s got an incredible 1-7-2 record at East Lake and will be massively on the offensive as he starts on just three under. He absolutely loves this course, and that’s enough for us to get behind him to bounce back here after what has been a frustrating few weeks for him. Despite not winning since January of last year, his consistency is quite telling, and he’s managed top 25 finishes in 12 of his last 13 events.
A player of his calibre will be wanting a lot more than just a top 25, and he’ll want to finish the season strong and carry some momentum into the US Open in a fortnight’s time, where he’ll look to better his three consecutive top six finishes.
At 12/1 he may seem slightly short for this week, though in such a small field and Rory McIlroy (the only player to have scored lower than Schauffele last year) a likely withdrawal as he and his wife are expecting a baby girl in the coming days, Schauffele knows he can beat everyone in the field and we’re inclined to get behind him.
W/O Starting Strokes - Xander Schauffele E/W At 12/1 (1/4 odds 1-4)
W/O Starting Strokes - Tony Finau E/W At 18/1 (1/4 odds 1-4)
W/O Starting Strokes - Sung-jae Im At 66/1 (1/4 odds 1-4)
TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS AVAILABLE HERE
£10 FREE BET TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP OFFER
Simply place £/€10 (£10 E/W) or more on the The Tour Championship, Outright Winner market and if your player is top 5 at the end of day one's play, we will credit you with a £10 free bet.
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ODDS ARE CORRECT AS OF 1/9/2020 HOWEVER ARE SUBJECT TO FLUCTUATIONS
