We take a look at some of the big games ahead of Week 13, and ask whether the Rams and Chiefs can cover big spreads in Detroit and Oakland? Check out the quick hits and top trends.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
The Dallas Cowboys (6-5) are riding a three-game winning streak and they face the New Orleans Saints (11-1), who extended their own streak to 10 when beating Atlanta 31-17 on Thanksgiving Day. This will be the first of three consecutive road games for the Saints, who are the 11/4 favourites with Genting Casino to win the Super Bowl.
The NFC East-leading Cowboys topped Washington on the same night, but know they face a freight train coming at them on both sides of the ball, such is the strength of the NFC South leaders.
No team has rushed for 100 yards or more against the Saints in over a year (29 games), and while the league’s leading rusher Ezekiel Elliott (1,074 yards) may fancy his chances of ending that streak, shut him down and the Saints know they can win this game. Elliott has been a one-man army in the last three weeks, as he has caught 18 of 21 passes for another 137 yards.
Receiver Amari Cooper’s arrival from Oakland has also helped the Cowboys. In four games, he has caught 22 passes for 349 yards and three touchdowns. Yet the Dallas offensive line needs to do a much better job of protecting QB Dak Prescott, who has been sacked a league-high 38 times and he has lost nine fumbles.
The Saints may not have to face outstanding linebacker Sean Lee, who is likely to remain sidelined with a hamstring injury, but the Cowboys have a strong pass rush. They have been able to put heavy pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have recorded 71 quarterback hits, while registering 31 sacks.
Yet the Saints’ front is excellent and have paved the way for Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to combine for at least 140 rushing yards in the last four games, and the Saints are averaging 133 yards per game on the ground.
The Saints have won four of the last five meetings in Dallas and nine of the last 11 overall. They are 17/20 to successfully concede 7.5 points on the handicap, while the Cowboys can be backed at 8/13 in receipt of 11.5 points.
DENVER BRONCOS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Cincinnati is in a tailspin. Having lost the last three, they must now do without starting QB Andy Dalton for the season with a thumb injury and will likely hand Jeff Driskel, 25, his first NFL start.
The former Florida and Louisiana Tech passer, a sixth round pick by San Francisco in 2016, played the last 44 snaps in a 35-20 home loss to the Cleveland Browns last week (17 of 29 for 155 yards), but he may well have receiver A.J. Green back from injury (toe) after he sat out the last three games. That could be an issue for a Broncos defense that has allowed 401 and 464 yards passing in the last two weeks.
Denver has won two on the trot, and while their defeat of Pittsburgh last weekend means they move to 5-6 for the season, they still need to pass the Bengals (5-6), Dolphins (5-6) and Colts (6-5) before even getting close to Baltimore (6-5), the current No. 6 seed in the conference.
The Ravens also have a head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver, so the Broncos need to finish the year with a better record than Baltimore. Yet the Broncos’ last five games are at the Bengals, at 49ers, Browns, at Raiders, and at home to the Chargers. It is hardly a murderer’s row, so they would appear to be still firmly in the playoff hunt.
The Broncos have won three of the last four meetings in Cincinnati and are considered 4-point favourites on the Genting Casino NFL handicap at odds of 17/20. As with all NFL games, there are alternative handicaps to choose from, so take a look.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
The Ravens (6-5) are in prime position for an AFC wild card at the very least and trail the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) in the NFC North. Yet their run-in is not smooth, with tough road games at Atlanta, Kansas City and the LA Chargers remaining, plus winnable home games against Tampa and Cleveland.
The Ravens are beating lesser teams – with Cincinnati and Oakland seen off in the last two weeks – but now face two back-to-back trips that they could easily lose.
The Falcons have lost their last three and at 4-7 are playing the role of spoiler for the rest of the season. Injuries have crippled a defense that is allowing 27.9 points and 396.7 yards per game and while the offense was dynamic, they have managed just 17.3 points per game in the last three weeks. That drop-off is unlikely to last, particularly since the Falcons now return to the fast track of their Mercedes-Benz home dome.
The Baltimore Ravens’ ground game is averaging 122.1 yards per contest, and Alex Collins leads the way with 411 yards and seven touchdowns, but this will be Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson’s first road game.
The Ravens have had a few days extra to prepare, having played on Thanksgiving, and while they have lost their last two trips to Atlanta, they are considered narrow 17/20 favourites on the Moneyline and are 4/6 in receipt of 2.5 points.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
A lot has changed for the Jacksonville Jaguars since these teams met three weeks ago. Jaguars starting center Brandon Linder and left guard Andrew Norwell were both placed on injured reserve, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was fired and replaced with Scott Milanovich, quarterback Blake Bortles was benched in favour of Cody Kessler, and running back Leonard Fournette was suspended. Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon will carry the load for the Jaguars.
While the Jaguars lost 24-21 to the Buffalo Bills last week, the Colts beat the Miami Dolphins 27-24 on a last-second field goal to take their record to 6-5 and place them firmly in the playoff hunt. In Week 10, the Colts beat the Jaguars 29-26 at home.
The Colts are considered 4/9 moneyline favourites to win, although they have lost in Jacksonville on their last three visits. They have never lost four consecutive trips and are 17/20 to successfully concede 4.5 points on the handicap.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Panthers are on a three-game skid after losing to the Steelers, Lions and Seahawks, but still possess a 6-5 record and are still in the mix for a playoff spot along with Washington, Minnesota and Seattle. This is very much a must-win game for them as they still have to face New Orleans (twice), Atlanta and Cleveland (next week).
Tampa, at 4-7, will likely be sitting at home in January, as running the table against Carolina, New Orleans, Baltimore, Dallas and Atlanta may not be enough. They halted a four-game slide by beating San Francisco last week on the arm of inconsistent QB Jameis Winston, who put up 312 yards and two scores.
The Panthers have lost their last two games by a combined four points and there are plenty of favourable match-ups for do-it-all running back Christian McCaffrey, so layers have the visitors at 3-point favourites at odds of 4/5. They have failed to cover in four of the last five against a team with a losing record, so it is buyer beware.
The points total is set at 56.5 and it is 17/20 that this will go over that bar, although meetings in Tampa have, in recent times, have been relatively low-scoring affairs.
BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Buffalo (4-7) gained a good win over Jacksonville last week, while the Dolphins (5-6) gave up a 24-10 lead to lose at Indianapolis and place their chances of a playoff spot on ice. It was their fourth defeat in five and it can be put down to conservative play calling and a lack of trust in QB Ryan Tannehill, who underlined the point remarkably well when tossing two late interceptions.
The Bills boast the No.2-ranked defense, so Miami’s No.28-ranked offense is going to be up against it at Hard Rock Stadium, regardless that the layers have the hosts as 4.5-point favourites at odds of 17/20.
Buffalo’s rookie QB Josh Allen played well in his return to the line-up in their wild 24-21 win against Jacksonville and now attempts to give Buffalo back-to-back wins in Miami, who have won just three of the last 10 meetings, having been swept by the Bills last season.
The Dolphins have slipped to the eighth seed in the AFC playoff picture, but are still just a game behind sixth seed Baltimore and Colts, and there are still five games left. There is plenty to play for.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Green Bay Packers’ (4-6-1) hopes of making the playoffs all but ended with its loss in Minnesota on Sunday night. The Pack now loses tiebreakers to the Vikings, Seahawks and Redskins. They will have to run the table against the Cardinals, Falcons (H), Bears (A), Jets (A) and Lions (H) to have any chance of making the post-season.
Packers have lost four of five – all on the road – and they host a Cardinals team that has lost three straight and now boasts a 2-9 record, so are vying for the first pick in the NFL draft. They rank last in total offense and in scoring,and while they rank No.2 in the NFL against the pass, that is a skewed stat, as opponents have routinely run on them.
Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers, who is throwing off his back foot far too often and not stepping into his throws as he has in the past, is having a difficult season, but he does have tight end Jared Cook back from an ankle injury, which will help the passing game.
Cardinals’ rookie passer Josh Rosen, the overall No.10 pick in the draft, is completing just 55.5 per cent of his passes and has thrown 11 interceptions. He also has been sacked 24 times and is simply not going to be able to keep up in a duel with Rodgers.
This is understandably one of the biggest handicap lines of a tricky week, with Genting Casino making the Packers 13.5-point favourites to successfully concede 13.5 points at odds of 17/20.
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ DETROIT LIONS
The last time the Rams ventured west of the Mississippi River, they lost to the New Orleans Saints. But the 10-1 Rams, fresh off a bye week, are considered 9.5-point favourites to beat a Lions team who lost 23-16 at home to the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving Day.
Los Angeles has had trouble covering spreads, especially of late, but Detroit will have a hard time finding the offense to keep up with a rested Rams team that is averaging 35 points per game.
The Lions have lost four of their last five and have covered the handicap on four of their last 15 games against a team with a winning record. We look for Aaron Donald, who leads the NFL in sacks with 14.5, to feast on a porous Detroit offensive line that has had trouble keeping QB Matt Stafford upright.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Chiefs (9-2) are just a game ahead of the surging Los Angeles Chargers (8-3) in the AFC West, yet they should be able to overcome the Oakland Raiders, whose only two wins have come against the Cleveland Browns and Arizona Cardinals – and both of those wins went right down to the wire.
The Chiefs have beaten the Raiders eight of the last 10 times they have played and are also 19-1 in their last 20 AFC West games.
The way that the Oakland defense has been playing, Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes, who is in the thick of the MVP talk with 3,628 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, could be in for some big numbers on Sunday.
Raiders are conceding an average of 29.7 points per game and they can’t stop the run, giving up a league-worse 151.4 yards per game average.
The Chiefs need to keep winning the Chargers snapping at their heels and they face tough games against the Ravens, Chargers and Seahawks over the next few weeks.
Perhaps the big question for punters is by how many the Chiefs will win this AFC West match-up? They are considered 14-point favourites at odds of 17/20 and the points total line is set at 55.5, although other handicap and totals lines are available.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Despite sitting at 8-3, the Patriots have three head-scratching losses this season to the likes of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions and Tennessee Titans and each of them were not relatively close. However, all three of them were on the road.
The Vikings are coming off a season-saving win over the Green Bay Packers. The 24-17 victory put them in the driver’s seat for the NFC’s No. 5 seed and the top wild card spot.
The Patriots’ offense has struggled in recent weeks on third down and inside the red zone, areas in which the Vikings’ defense excel. The Vikings have held opponents to a 27.6 per cent conversion rate on third down and are allowing opponents to find the end zone 43.2 per cent of the time on their red-zone opportunities.
In Sunday’s 27-13 win over the New York Jets, the Patriots went 5-for-12 on third down and 1-for-3 in the red zone, so this represents one of the biggest tests the Patriots offense will face this season.
The Vikings are considered 15/8 to win (moneyline) and are 17/20 in receipt of 5 points on the handicap.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
San Francisco will stick with Nick Mullins at QB for this clash, despite their 27-9 loss at Tampa last week. He threw one touchdown, but was sacked four times and was intercepted twice in the loss for the 2-9 49ers.
Mullens, filling in for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, completed 18 of 32 passes for 221 yards in the loss, but he had to do without receivers Marquise Goodwin (personal matter) and Pierre Garçon (knee injury) in the game. It was their sixth road loss of the season.
The Seahawks (6-5) have won six of their last nine games and came out on top after another dogfight at Carolina last week to keep themselves in contention for a playoff spot.
Games between these two often come down to the fourth quarter, but the Seahawks have won 11 of the last 12 meetings, including the last seven in Seattle, and are moving the ball well with QB Russell Wilson.
The 49ers have scored 18 or less points in four of their last seven games and are fresh off a contest in which they scored just nine points despite having 23 first downs, so it is little wonder that they are considered 10/11 shots in receipt of 9.5-points on the handicap.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Unless the Los Angeles Chargers can pull off an upset by winning at Kansas City in week 15, then it seems that the best they can hope for is a wild card spot in the AFC. If the season ended today, the wild card match-up they would face would be a tricky trip to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers, just as we have in Week 12.
Heinz Field is not a place where the Chargers have had great success – just three wins in franchise history – and they have gone 1-2 in the playoffs in Pittsburgh.
The Chargers will also be without the services of No.1 running back Melvin Gordon, while defensive tackle Corey Liuget is out for the year, so Pittsburgh would hope that they can avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this year. Four of the Steelers’ seven wins this season have been decided by seven or less points, so they have been good at finding ways to win.
Yet the Steelers have not been impressive in the last two weeks, and suffered a heart-breaking loss in Denver on Sunday. They are also a mere 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games when a favourite of at least three points, and have been poor at covering handicaps at home recently.
The Steelers are 8/15 favourites to win and 11/10 to successfully concede 4.5 points to the Chargers on the handicap.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Super Bowl champion Eagles could tie for the NFC East lead with a win and a Cowboys loss Thursday night, so perhaps writing them off just yet would seem a little premature. They were lucky to survive and beat the New York Giants last week, though.
Washington lost QB Alex Smith for the season but they are at 6-5 atop the NFC East with Dallas, with just the tie-breaker keeping the Cowboys in front.
Theoretically, Washington’s back-up QB Colt McCoy will be better than he was against Dallas on Thanksgiving Day because he will have had more time to prepare with the starters. Yet defeat by the Cowboys means they have lost three of their last four games.
The Eagles are trying to win back-to-back games for the first time this season, and while they are 14-4 in as favourites in home games, they have covered the spread in just 10 of 18 as home favourites and are just 2-8 covering the handicap in their last 10 games.
Washington will be off of everyone’s Christmas card list after they added Reuben Foster – who was arrested Saturday in Tampa and charged with domestic battery before being released by the San Francisco 49ers – to their roster.
He was also arrested on a felony domestic violence charge in April, but his accuser – the same woman as in this weekend’s alleged incident – later recanted. Adding Foster indicates that none of those responsible for this decision care about the well-being of women.
And they would sooner take a scrub QB like McCoy than a proven winner like Colin Kaepernick, who is out of work, seemingly blackballed by NFL owners for taking a knee at the national anthem in protest against police brutality.
Quite frankly, owner Dan Snyder and the whole Washington Redskins franchise has made themselves an odious laughing stock over the last couple of weeks, and there will be many hoping the Eagles win this clash at odds of 1/3 and cover the 6.5-point handicap at odds of 17/20.
Those seeking educated picks against the handicap spread may wish to take a look at Lindyssports.com, America’s leading football authority.
