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A first home win for Big Sam at West Brom has given them a glimmer of hope for survival this year, though in truth they can consider themselves quite lucky to have come away with maximum points at the weekend, with Lewis Dunk’s free kick bizarrely ruled out, while Brighton also missed the target with two penalties, so there’s still improvement needed from the baggies if they want to start picking up points with any regularity.
Richarlison’s third strike in as many games gave Everton a narrow 1-0 win at home to Southampton on Monday night, which has kept their hopes for a top-four finish in their hands for the time being, though it’s too soon to be thinking of that outcome as an Everton fan, and this is exactly the type of game they’ll need to win if they are to keep that push alive.
Everton have been touted as the ‘Robin Hood’ of the league in recent weeks, picking up results against Liverpool, Man United, and Leicester in recent weeks, only to lose to relegation candidates Fulham and Newcastle, so that’s certainly something they’ll want to correct heading into this clash.
They key for Carlo Ancelotti is the availability of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who had a big part to play in their goal on Monday night despite it not registering as a ‘goal involvement’.
Everton -1 Handicap
Their two recent defeats to Fulham and Man City coincided with his injury, though with him, as well as holding playmaker Allan, back in the side, there’s little reason to think they won’t win this and it’s surprising the see them as long as they are in the 1x2 market.
Excluding fellow bottom-six sides, the midlands club are winless at home this season, losing seven of their nine games at the Hawthorns against sides outside that bracket.
They’ve conceded an average of 3.3 goals per game across those nine outings and scored an average of 0.55.
There’s no doubt that Everton are going to dominate proceedings, and with a near full strength side, there looks to be fantastic value in getting behind the visitors on the handicap.
Everton have a fantastic away record, with only the top three sides in the league picking up more points on their travels than the Toffees, while of West Brom’s 15 defeats so far this year, 2/3rds have come by a minimum two goal margin, so at a long price the handicap is our best bet for this outing.