Form Prior To The Break
Both these sides would’ve welcomed the enforced break a few months back, with the hosts having won just the solitary match in seven, while third placed Leicester had hit a slight dip in form, going just W2-D2-L4, with their only victories coming against bottom six outfits West Ham and Aston Villa.
In all fairness to the Foxes, they can be mitigated for three of those winless matches coming up against top six sides Man City, Wolves and Chelsea, though defeats to Burnley, Southampton and Norwich would have left a bitter taste in their fans’ mouths, and casts a shadow of doubt over their chances for this one.
The Hornets are in the heat of a relegation scrap, though having been rock bottom for the majority of the season so far, they’ll be encouraged that they are very much emerging out of that bracket.
Their highlight of the season so far came in the penultimate game before the break where they downed Champions elect Liverpool 3-0, thanks to the return of the vivacious Ismaila Sarr.
The Senegalese has been by far their most influential player this season, with the Hornets picking up 1.38 points per game with him in the starting lineup, which drops a whopping 73% when he’s absent, and could be a real threat to a Foxes side who will be without star full-back Ricardo Pereira for this one, which Nigel Pearson might look to exploit.
Watford To Beat Leicester
While the outcome of this is extremely difficult to call, as it’s unclear how the lay off would have impacted both sides, there’s a serious case to be made for the hosts.
They’ve gone W5-D3-L5 under Pearson so far, which goes to a mightily impressive W4-D1-L1 at Vicarage Road, which has included wins over Liverpool, Man Utd and Wolves by an aggregate scoreline of 7-1, and at a the longer price it may be worth getting behind the underdogs to get up and running here with a win.
Matches at Vicarage road don’t tend to be goal shy, with 64% of matches here this season seeing at least three goals, while with top six sides visiting that sees a dramatic increase.
18 of the last 22 matches here since the beginning of 2016/17 against top six sides have seen a minimum of three goals, though we’d be hesitant in backing that outcome again especially at a heavy odds-on price.
The behind closed doors nature will undoubtedly have an impact on output for both sides, so we’ll steer clear of that market and stick to the single bet.