Wales eventually found a winner when visiting potential banana skin Finland, though in truth they were the more threatening side, despite some injury absentees, and we’d expect a similar sort of performance here.
Visitors Bulgaria may have taken the lead in their stalemate with the Republic of Ireland, but it came against the run of play and Ryan Giggs will be bitterly disappointed if his team miss an early opportunity to seize control over this group.
All four of the teams in this pool are low on output and typically involved in tight games. 10 of Wales’s last 12 matches have seen fewer than three goals, including each of the past six, and with Aaron Ramsey injured and Gareth Bale lacking match fitness, they’re reliant upon promising young talent to deliver in the here and now.
Meanwhile, 10 of Bulgaria’s last 15 matches have also gone under that same threshold, with just five goals across Georgi Dermendzhiev’s four games at the helm so far.
Those 15 matches haven’t brought Bulgaria much success however. They managed just a solitary victory over this period, while seven of the past 10 have ended in defeat. Away from home the picture is similarly depressing with a W1-D4-L10 record since June 2016.
Aside from an unexpected win away in Slovenia, the only other occasions where they avoided defeat came against weak outfits Luxembourg, Cyprus, Kosovo and Montenegro.
Wales To Win And Under 2.5 Goals
Wales have won to nil in their past three fixtures now and excluding the strongest opponent they’ve faced in recent times, Croatia, they’re an impressive W7-D1-L1 since 2019, leaving them attractive in the outright.
All but one of those victories were accompanied by clean sheets, while the standard of opposition across these games was largely similar to that of Bulgaria’s level. Given the visitors have failed to score in four of their past five defeats, the win to nil is built on solid foundations.
However, the greater temptations still is Wales & Under 2.5 Goals. The Dragons have scored more than twice in just two of 31 fixtures since October 2016, both of which came in the first four games of Giggs’ tenure, as it’s happened in none of the subsequent 16 fixtures.
However, they’ve still found the net in 10 of 11 matches since 2019, despite key midfielder Aaron Ramsey having started just one of these games and made a 30-minute appearance from the bench in another.
Kieffer Moore To Score Anytime
Hal Robson-Kanu may have returned to the setup but he can expect to remain on the bench given Kieffer Moore has established himself as in important focal point up top under Giggs.
He was dangerous against Finland and already had one chalked off before finding the winner, which leaves him with three goals and an assist from Wales’ past six outings.
Bale and Ramsey score a good chunk of the host’s goals, but with only the former available and shaking off some rust, Moore may be a better option in the goalscorers market.