Recent Form
After being held to a goalless stalemate at Molineux, Man United’s attention turns to the other domestic cup competition and to their City rivals as they host the holders.
This is a reverse of their clash last month where United stunned the champions with a 2-1 win at the Etihad, though since then the Citizens have recorded seven wins from eight matches across all competitions, including big wins over Arsenal and Leicester as Pep Guardiola’s side seem to have their mojo back despite losing assistant manager Mikel Arteta to Arsenal.
The blue half of Manchester has seen domestic dominance in recent years, culminating in the treble last season, though the Red Devils have proved a tricky customer over the years.
Indeed, recent head-to-heads are evenly poised at W4-D2-L4 a piece since the beginning of 2015/16, while in knockout format United have won four of the last five matches going back 10 years in each of the FA Cup, League Cup and Community Shield.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men are in a mixed vein of form at the moment, going W6-D4-L3 since the back end of November, with wins coming over the likes of Colchester, AZ Alkmaar, Newcastle and Burnley, though they did beat both Spurs and City themselves in that time as they continue to take points off the bigger sides.
The visitors are in strong form, and also haven’t lost back-to-back matches against their rivals since 2009/10, though with Solskjaer’s charges currently unpredictable and this being played at the Theatre of Dreams, the outright looks well worth avoiding.
Both teams to score would seem a likely alternative, though with that only occurring once in the hosts last six meetings it seems slightly too short even if Solskjaer’s men have registered in each of their 15 matches here this season and it’s another market that looks to hold more value.
Under 2.5 Goals
Despite undoubted firepower from both sides, only half of the last 10 meetings have featured more than two goals, while recent form and the nature of this match enhances the case for fewer strikes.
Man United have seen ‘Unders’ in five of their last seven matches, while one of the exceptions was their 3-0 victory over League Two Colchester who don’t quite hold the calibre of their opponents here.
Further to that, when facing the ‘Big Six’ and this seasons Leicester outfit at Old Trafford, Solskjaer’s men have seen two strikes or fewer in three of their four such matches since September and with this also being the first of two legs, it could well be a slightly cagier affair than usual.
Recent history shows that six of the last seven League Cup semi-final first legs between Premier League opposition have had a maximum of two goals.
Though Guardiola’s men have the attacking prowess to cause problems, the hosts have only conceded six in their last eight, and at the longer price ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ looks to be the way to go.
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