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Play-Off First Leg Key Stats
- Home teams have gone W7-D9-L12 in the first leg since 2005/06, with 17 being level at the break.
- Since 2010/11, these opening leg play-off fixtures have produced just four games with more than two strikes from the 18 such matches, as 10 saw one goal or fewer and 13 saw one side or the other fail to register, while all seven draws finished Draw/Draw in the HT/FT market.
- Six of the eight victories for the home side have finished to nil since 2004/05, with all but two of those such wins seeing fewer than three strikes, as half finished 1-0.
- In the past 11 seasons there’s only been three first leg of the 22 semi-finals that saw one side or the other triumph by margin of two goals or more, as these first legs have been overwhelmingly low-scoring affairs. Under 2.5 Goals landed in 77.3% of these games and Under 1.5 in 54.6%.
Back-to-back defeats scuppered Brentford’s chances of automatic promotion. However, although there will be an argument that they’ll find it hard to recover from the blow, teams finishing in third place often enter the play-offs with that disappointment and still hold a decent record in the play-offs.
Brentford Draw No Bet
In the last nine seasons four of the teams that secured promotion came third – Swansea 2010/11, West Ham 2011/12, Norwich 2014/15 and Fulham 2017/18.
The latter even missed out in similar fashion to Brentford as they lost on the final day, while the team in second (Cardiff) could only manage a draw, as was the case with West Brom this year.
Swansea will feel they have the wind in their sails after producing consecutive victories, rather fortuitously landing them sixth place at the expense of Nottingham Forest, who did them a favour by losing their final two games.
However, the Swans’ victories came over mid-table outfits Bristol City and Reading, leaving them just W2-D8-L9 when facing top-half teams since September. Limited to the top eight in the table that record is an even worse W1-D4-L8, as they’ve consistently struggled against better opponents.
Under 2.5 Goals
Brentford will however have their work cut out for them as Swansea’s home games tend to be tight affairs. Only two of their past 16 at the Liberty Stadium saw the teams separated by more than a single strike, while there’s been a maximum of one goal in four of their last five here.
Brentford To Win 1-0
Play-offs can often be cagey affairs, though it would be a surprise if the visitors can’t register on the board. Indeed, Brentford were the division’s top scorers this term and have failed to net just once in 17 matches since February.
Thomas Frank has a fully fit squad, with Sergi Canos and Shandon Baptiste both back from injuries, so his side should just edge this fixture.
The Bees won the two regular season encounters 3-0 (A) and 3-1 (H), though with well-established pattern of low-scoring first legs, the 1-0 correct score holds some appeal.