Sevilla are formidable opponents as they arrive unbeaten in 20 games since mid-February, winning eight of the past nine including victories over Valencia, Roma, Wolves and Man Utd across their last four.
Inter are unbeaten in 11 themselves, with their current six-game winning streak featuring clashes against Napoli, Atalanta and Leverkusen, as well as the 5-0 drubbing they just handed out to Shakhtar Donetsk.
Something has to give here and with both teams sturdy in defence, fine margins should separate this tie. Indeed, Inter have conceded just once in seven games, while Sevilla have let in one from six.
However, the latter were fortunate not to be punished by some more clinical finishing against Man Utd on Sunday, also relying upon the heroics of Yassine Bounou between the sticks.
Lukaku To Score Anytime
The Nerazzurri certainly have the tools to hurt Sevilla’s backline with star strikers Lautaro Martinez and Romelu Lukaku bagging two goals each against Shakhtar, as the Belgian has now found the net in 10 consecutive Europa League matches going back to his time with Everton.
In fact, they’ve scored at least twice in all but one of their last 11 outings and with Lukaku netting six times across as many recent games, he appears worth siding with again.
Although the Italian outfit are in fine fettle, their five-goal haul saw them produce four second-half goals as they drove the nail into Shakhtar, and the Ukrainians are hardly known for their stellar defence, gifting the opener to Martinez on Monday.
In fact, Shakhtar have just one clean sheet now from their past 29 European outings and Sevilla are much more capable defensively.
Inter Milan To Beat Sevilla
With that in mind, we wouldn’t expect Inter to run riot again here, even if their experience at the back and star quality up front hands them the edge.
Although consistently netting braces, the Nerazzurri had only scored more than twice in one of seven fixtures prior to facing Shakhtar, coming against a Genoa side that finished 17th in Serie A.
Given the organized nature of Antonio Conte’s previous Juventus and Chelsea sides, we can’t imagine the Italian being too gung-ho with his tactics with silverware on the line.
The Spanish outfit are typically involved in tight encounters with only five of their last 22 fixtures seeing the teams separated by more than a single strike.
Five of their past six matches have seen fewer than three goals, though we wouldn’t be overly confident of backing this game to go ‘unders’ with six of the past eight finals featuring at least three goals.
Team Goals Exact (Inter 2)
Three of Sevilla’s last five defeats ended 2-1 as the other finished 3-1, while Inter have beaten Napoli, Atalanta and Getafe 2-0 each, as well as Leverkusen 2-1 all within their past five matches.
The 2-0 and 2-1 exact scores are tempting, but with Conte’s men netting at least twice in 10 of 11 games, and exactly that number in four of their last five, we’ll back them to net the precise amount again.