Southampton have turned over a new leaf after a shoddy start to the season, going an impressive W6-D1-L1 across all competitions since mid-December.
Spurs, meanwhile, seem to be scraping by this season, picking up the odd win, but for the most part they’ve been largely unconvincing. In fact, they’ve only won by more than a solitary strike once in 22 domestic matches dating back into September, going just W8-D7-L7 across this period.
Away from home that record stands at W2-D5-L5, including a 1-0 defeat here at St. Mary’s on New Year’s Day, so we’re struggling to see how they start as favourites.
Southampton reached the semi-final of this competition two years ago, beating Premier League opponents Watford and West Brom on that run, before losing out to eventual winners Chelsea at Wembley.
Spurs haven’t been as successful in this competition as they may have hoped having not even reached a final this century, while they’ve now lost four of their last five matches against top-flight opposition in this cup.
They’ve gone W2-D3-L5 away from home against such opposition since the fourth round in 2007/08, not including semi-final defeats at a ‘neutral’ Wembley back in 2017/18 and 2016/17, so we’re not at all confident of their chances.
Southampton To Beat Spurs
Without a truly recognized striker available for the visitors, we’re struggling to see where their output is going to come from.
The Saints have conceded just five goals in their last eight matches as three of them came in a second half collapse against Wolves, which we’re inclined to put down as an anomaly, and so we’d like to get behind the hosts to keep it tight at the back once more.
In fact, the Lilywhites have failed to score in four of their last seven games against top-tier opponents, and given the exceptions came against bottom-six sides Norwich (twice) and Brighton, they’ll be hard pressed to find the net here.
Ralph Hasenhuttl’s men have been scoring at an average just shy of two goals per game during their resurgence, scoring exactly that many in each of their last four and we wouldn’t put it past them to do so again.
However, with their visitor’s output in the balance, the ‘Overs/Unders’ market looks well worth avoiding and we’ll stick on the outright.
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