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Golden Boot Contenders
Despite missing parts of the season through injury, Harry Kane managed to hold on to take the Golden Boot by just the single strike over Mohamed Salah.
Kane achieved the unprecedented double having also won the Playmaker award for the most assists in a season, despite his Spurs side finishing eighth in the table, making him the first players since Kevin Phillips in 1999/00 to win the Golden Boot from a side finishing outside the top six.
Harry Kane 11/4
Kane (11/4) has finished in the top two of the Golden Boot race in five of the last seven seasons as has been his dominance over this league, taking the crown in half of the previous six seasons.
The main issue for the England Captain now is the potential from a move away from Spurs. At his price, a move to Man City would make him good value to grab this crown for a second successive season with the likes of Raheem Sterling (with whom he has good chemistry from their time in the England setup), Kevin de Bruyne, Jack Grealish, and Riyad Mahrez providing the creativity around him.
However, if a move doesn’t materialise, his price looks too short to get behind considering he already looks less committed to the club than he has done over the years.
Mo Salah 7/2
Following Kane closely in the market is Mohamed Salah (7/2) with the Liverpool man finishing just one goal off Kane last season in what was a slightly offseason by their lofty standards.
Salah has never finished more than four goals off the top since he arrived from Liverpool four years ago, winning twice (once joint) and he certainly remains the biggest goal threat for Liverpool.
It’s understandable why both he and Kane are such a short price given their record and the fact that they’re on penalty duty for their clubs, with eight of the last nine winners or co-winners being penalty takers.
The return of Virgil van Dijk will add defensive stability to this Liverpool side that they lacked last season, and Salah will no doubt be pushing to win this again so he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on, especially if that price begins to lengthen.
Raheem Sterling 16/1
There’s a big jump between the leading two candidates and Raheem Sterling (16/1), though we’d expect that void to be filled when Romelu Lukaku signs on the dotted line for a second spell at Chelsea.
Sterling was on fire for England over the summer and was instrumental in guiding them to their first ever Euros final, so Man City will be hoping that he can carry that over into the new season and find the kind of form that he was showing prior to their last campaign.
The issue for Sterling is that he plays in a Pep Guardiola side, and while that reaps its rewards in terms of titles, the strength in the depth of the squad means minutes are far from guaranteed.
Indeed, only three players played more minutes than Sterling last year for City, though the English winger still only managed 74.2% of possible pitch time and missing a quarter of the season and not being on penalty duty really does hinder your chances here, especially with the arrival of Jack Grealish to potentially take even more time away.
Timo Werner 16/1
Timo Werner (16/1) seems far too high on this list for a number of reasons. Although he ended up as Chelsea’s top scorer across all competitions last season, his league tally was nothing to write home about and he often struggled to finish off opportunities.
The argument may be that with a season now under his belt, he may return to the kind of form that saw him become one of the deadliest finishers during his time at Leipzig, and there’s certainly a case for that, though the arrival of Romelu Lukaku will no doubt limit the time that Werner gets on the field, with Mason Mount and Kai Havertz the likely two to flank the Belgian striker, and while we’d expect him to be more prolific than last season, there are others that appeal at longer prices.
Sadio Mane And Patrick Bamford 18/1
Sadio Mane and Patrick Bamford (18/1) are next in the market, though neither really appeal. Bamford had a stellar season for Leeds last year and he proved many wrong with his goal tally.
Leeds are always going to create chances under Marcelo Bielsa and will be aiming for a European spot this year. Bamford will be key to that and will no doubt get plenty of opportunities, though he’s not prolific enough and a 15.9% shot conversion rate last year tells that tale.
With Leeds not likely to finish in the top six, Bamford is too short here. Sadio Mane co-won this award two years ago, which is impressive considering he wasn’t the main penalty taker, though since then he’s not hit the goalscoring heights that has been expected of him.
He remains one of the most dangerous wingers in the game, and while we’d expect him to improve on his tally of 11 last year, he may struggle to cement himself in this side with Diogo Jota also pushing for a starting spot.
Golden Boot Outsiders
There are some strong outside shouts in the way of Jamie Vardy and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (25/1), both English forwards at the opposite ends of their career and the latter probably the better priced of the two, while Aston Villa duo Ollie Watkins and Danny Ings (33/1) could provide some value if they can jell together.
Premier League Golden Boot Tips
However, Romelu Lukaku could be the best bet depending on what price he lands at when he signs. The Belgian is a proven Premier League forward in the prime of his career right now.
He certainly has some unfinished business with his boyhood club Chelsea and everything looks set up for him to go well this campaign.
Chelsea’s main issue under Tuchel last year was their inability to put chances away regularly, meaning Lukaku looks like the missing piece they need.
He’d be almost guaranteed minutes with the price they’re paying for him, while Jorginho doesn’t necessarily look like the set penalty taker for this side and Lukaku could stake a claim from 18-yards-out.
A price over 5/1 would pose decent value for us, though anything shorter than Mo Salah looks the best bet.