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Netherlands face Italy in what is one of the heavyweight clashes of the Nations League campaign so far. The hosts finished runners up to Portugal in the inaugural competition last year, and have gone unbeaten in their seven matches since, winning six of them.
Dwight Lodewges got off to a winning start as caretaker manager, though the 1-0 victory hosting Poland isn’t something the write home about, while it’s unclear if they can keep scoring at the rate they were under Koeman.
The Netherlands To Win
When including two extra time goals vs England, Oranje averaged 2.7 goals per game last year, and scoring at least three in 60% of them including against top sides Germany (4) and England (3). That ratio is helped by their European qualifying group containing Belarus, Estonia and Northern Ireland, though their firepower is unquestionable.
Italy played out a 1-1 draw with Bosnia at the weekend, with Stefano Sensi’s deflected strike cancelling out Edin Dzeko’s opener. That was the first time the Italians have failed to win for 12 matches, a run stretching back to November 2018 when they drew with winners Portugal in the previous edition of the Nations League.
While that’s an impressive run, their Euro qualifying group consisted of Bosnia (49th in the world rankings), Greece (54th), Finland (58th), Armenia (102nd) and Liechtenstein (180th), so it’s hard to get too excited about their form.
Indeed, up against teams in the world’s top-25 the Azzurri are just W2-D6-L5 since September 2017, with both wins coming 1-0 against USA (home) and Poland (away). That record goes to W1-D1-L4 on the road, which doesn’t excite us about their chances of picking up three points here.
The hosts have a much more respectable W7-D3-L4 record in such matches over the same time frame when including extra time, which goes to a brilliant six wins from eight games on home soil so they’re certainly worth siding with at odds against here, despite the unknown effects of the change in management.
Memphis Depay To Score Anytime
Memphis Depay has become the talisman for the national side and despite drawing a blank against Poland last time out, he had numerous opportunities and pulled the strings for his side.
He scored six international goals in 2019, while he also chimed in with goals against some of the bigger sides around in Germany (twice), France and Portugal, so we’ll get behind him to find the back of the net again here.
Memphis Depay To Score Anytime At 8/5
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