While Mainz returned to action with a solid point away at Koln on Sunday, Leipzig were forced to come from behind hosting Freiburg, as battering ram Yussuf Poulsen rescued a point with a header 13 minutes from time.
That’s now three Bundesliga stalemates in a row for Julian Nagelsmann’s side, as other top-half outfits Leverkusen and Wolfsburg also shared the spoils with them. However, in truth, Leipzig dominated most of the game as it was surprising to see them score just the solitary goal given some of the chances on display.
We’d expect the visitors to come good here. Excluding results against the top seven in the table, Leipzig have won 13 of their 15 matches this season, while away from home this term they’ve led at both half-time and full-time in six of seven such fixtures.
Having netted a minimum of three goals in each of those six victories, as well as putting eight past Mainz in the reverse fixture, firepower ought not to be an issue.
Mainz are hardly goal-shy either as the 2-2 draw with Koln demonstrated, though we’d be reluctant to back both teams to score. Most of their output has been garnered against weaker teams, as Mainz have registered just three times across their past nine encounters with the top eight in the league.
They have however trailed at both half-time and full-time in eight of the last 11 such games, so we’re not expecting any major resistance even if this clash shouldn’t be quite as one-sided as the previous meeting.
Leipzig Over 1.5 (Team First Half Goals)
In fact, Mainz have found themselves behind at the break in five of seven head-to-heads since Leipzig joined them in the top flight in 2016/17, shipping an average of two goals per game in the first half alone.
These have been exciting affairs with all seven featuring a minimum of three strikes as all but one of them saw four or more, with the average number of goals ridiculously high at exactly five per match.
Timo Werner To Score Anytime
Timo Werner may not have registered on the Bundesliga’s return, though he was one of a number of players to draw a save from Freiburg keeper Alexander Schwolow on Saturday. He’ll be desperate to make up ground at the top of the Bundesliga scoring charts, with rival Robert Lewandowski having extended his lead by one to five goals now, and with more output on the agenda here it’s hard to see him failing to net.
The 24-year-old bagged three goals and three assists in the reverse fixture, and with 15 of his 21 goals coming against teams eighth or below in the table, scoring in 10 of 15 such games this term, he looks well-placed to grab another goal or two here.