Leipzig Looking To Continue Their Momentum
After a 66-day break from football following the Covid-19 outbreak, the German Bundesliga gets back underway and this top-half clash is one of the five opening 14:30 kick-offs.
Leipzig look to get their season back underway after letting a four-point lead at the head of the table slip, which is now a five-point deficit, though in fairness they did face five of the current top seven sides over their last seven outings.
They did beat both Schalke and Werder Bremen by considerable 5-0 and 3-0 margins respectively though, so they’re more than capable of putting teams to the sword.
Freiburg may be up in eighth place, but they’ve now lost over half their last 11 matches at all venues. On the road alone, they’ve won just one of their 10 trips since late October, coming against 15th-placed Mainz.
Furthermore, against the breakaway top five teams they’ve lost each of their last three by an aggregate scoreline of 8-3, so we’d be surprised to see them turn that around this Saturday.
The hosts may have seen a downturn in performances before the break domestically, but they’ll certainly take confidence in comfortably beating Spurs 3-0 last time out to reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League.
Moreover, the Red Bull Arena has become a serious fortress for them as they’ve won six of their eight unbeaten league outings here since November, scoring an average of 3.4 goals per game, while only Gladbach and Leverkusen had the ability to hold them to stalemates.
Timo Werner To Score Anytime
Timo Werner netted eight goals from as many of those recent home games and now up against his favourite Bundesliga outfit to face, he’ll surely add to his 21-goal tally. The German striker has more goals against Freiburg than any other club with 10 from 11 career league meetings, including four from his past three on home turf.
By contrast, the visitors’ top scorer Nils Peterson is now goalless from his last seven since becoming Freiburg’s all-time leading scorer, so they may well have some trouble in even registering in this fixture.
Leipzig -1 Handicap
Since both sides were promoted to German’s top division for the 2016/17 season, the Bulls lead the head-to-heads by four wins to three, although at this stadium they’ve won all three by an aggregate scoreline of 10-2 and so we like the look of the handicap.
Our only concern would be the absence of Dayot Upamecano for the hosts but considering their win percentage and defensive record is actually better in the 24 games without him starting since the beginning of last season, it doesn’t worry us too much.