Atletico Madrid v Barcelona
3-0 is a popular scoreline for Barcelona at the moment, with three of their last five outings finishing by that scoreline. They’ve been on the wrong end of two of those as tensions begin to rise at the Nou Camp, and this is the last fixture they would want on this form. They’ve won just one of their last five games as the absence of Lionel Messi and Antoine Griezmann seems to have hit harder than expected.
Atletico at the Wanda Metropolitano is one of the hardest tests in football, and it’s no wonder they’re only lost twice in their last 40 outings on home soil. The last three, however, have finished all square, and they even needed a calamitous 90th minute own goal against Villarreal to keep that run going.
Atletico are unbeaten in four against their Catalan rivals going back to the beginning of 2020, winning two and drawing two in that time with the only match at this venue finishing 1-0 to the hosts. Neither side is exactly on fire at the moment, especially in front of goal, and we’d expect another low scoring affair. 11 of Atleti’s last 13 home games have featured under 3.5 goals while the visitors have scored in only two of their last five, with those coming against Granada and Levante.
UNDER 3.5 GOALS
Cadiz v Valencia
After a really strong start to the campaign, Valencia have picked up just one point from their last three outings with that coming as they managed a 95th minute equaliser at home to Athletic Bilbao last weekend. It should be noted that those two defeats came against Real Madrid and Sevilla, who both occupy top three slots in the table at the moment, and they should find this Cadiz outfit a more straightforward task. That said, Valencia have an atrocious away record in recent years, winning just three of their last 33 away league games and losing 20.
Cadiz aren’t exactly electric on home soil either though, as they’re now winless since the beginning of May at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. That leaves the match result very much up in the air, though the goals market looks tempting. There won’t be a lot of confidence for either of these sides at the moment, and that tends to translate to low scoring affairs. Cadiz have averaged just 0.75 goals per game across their last 12 home league outings, while Los Murcielagos have scored just one or fewer in 13 of their last 15 road trips, and another unders game looks to be on the cards.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
Espanyol v Real Madrid
Real Madrid need to bounce back fast from one of the biggest shocks in Champions League history as Sheriff Tiraspol scored a late winner in midweek to sink Los Blancos 2-1. It’s not all doom and gloom for Ancelotti’s men who remain top of La Liga courtesy of an unbeaten start, though with eight other clubs still within six points there’s no margin for error if they want to hold that top spot.
It’s been the start to the season that Espanyol would have expected with just one win from seven, though three draws in that time keeps them up in 14th, and with their main target for the season surviving relegation they can consider this a decent start. They’ve scored just two goals in their last seven home games in La Liga, going back into the season before last when they were relegated, though both those strikes came in their last two games from the boot of Raul de Tomas.
They’ve lost six of their 10 matches against top-six sides since the beginning of 2019/20, losing each of their last five, though they haven’t conceded more than twice in any of their last nine, so we’d back them to keep this one tight. Each of their last seven against top-six outfits have yielded less than four goals, and with Madrid lacking confidence after their midweek defeat, that looks to best angle here.
UNDER 3.5 GOALS