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England have opened their campaign with expected wins over San Marino (5-0) and Albania (2-0), but there’s room for improvement, particularly in the final ball, as the margin of victory could have been greater on both occasions.
Poland should provide significantly more adept opponents, though their own campaign could have gotten off to a better start under new head coach Paulo Sousa, as they had to rescue a 3-3 draw with Hungary on the opening day before an easier 3-0 success over Andorra.
Poland are without Leeds midfielder Mateusz Klich following a positive coronavirus test, but more importantly Robert Lewandowski has returned to Germany for treatment on a knee complaint.
However, the Bayern hitman isn’t the only threat at the sharp end with the likes of Arkadiusz Milik and Krzysztof Piatek offering goals, so England can think again if they believe Poland will be easy pickings.
-1 Handicap Draw
Poland avoided relegation from League A in the Nations League courtesy of a pair of victories over bottom side Bosnia, but they tend to come up short when taking on teams of real quality.
Clashes with the Netherlands and Italy brought about three losses and a draw, though they remain a competitive outfit with only one of those defeats coming by two goals.
In fact, since the last World Cup, the visitors have lost five of eight winless clashes with the best sides they’ve encountered, facing Italy four times, as well as Portugal and the Netherlands twice each.
All but one of those defeats came by a one-goal margin, while eight of Poland’s 11 losses against anyone since November 2017 have come by the same difference, with five of them ending 1-0.
England To Win 2-1
England should manage the win having claimed the spoils in 12 of 14 home games since the World Cup, though big victories have only come over sides weaker than their visitors here.
Spain (2-1) and Demark (1-0) both achieved victories at Wembley in the Nations League, while wins over Switzerland (1-0), Croatia (2-1) and Belgium (2-1) were all narrow affairs too.
That leaves the one-goal winning margin an attractive proposition, but we’d be surprised if there wasn’t much in the way of chances here.
England are better in attack and their defence hasn’t been greatly tested in their opening qualifiers, but with just one clean sheet from those five most difficult home assignments since the World Cup, their visitors will fancy their odds of registering on the scoreboard.