Following England’s defeat to Belgium at the weekend, this is effectively a dead rubber match. Iceland have already been relegated to League B and are the only team in all four leagues to fail to register a single point so far.
Gareth Southgate will likely use this as an opportunity to try out some more players before a four-month break in international fixtures in which he’ll begin to formulate ideas about his Euros squad, so we’d be surprised to see the likes of Harry Kane start here.
While Southgate acknowledged that his side must start competing with the best nations in world football with some consistency if they want to win trophies, they can at least call upon an outstanding recent record against sides outside the top 20 in the world for this game.
Indeed, They’ve won their last five such matches by an aggregate scoreline of 21-0, and winning 18 of their last 19 such games going back to June 2017 so at Wembley we can’t get behind the upset.
England -1 Handicap
Unsurprisingly against a side that has lost all five of their Nations League games this year, the hosts are far too short on the outright so it’s worth coupling it with a different market.
While only 2/3rds of those wins came by more than a single strike, that includes eight of the last nine, though the exception did come against Iceland in the reverse fixture.
Iceland have always proved competitive against England, famously beating Roy Hodgson’s side at Euro 2016.
Though away from home Iceland often fall short and seven of their last nine defeats on the road have come by two or more goals and even a makeshift England side should have enough quality to take a comfortable victory at home.
England Half Time / Full Time
Of those 18 wins the Three Lions have achieved in 19 outings against sides ranked outside the top 20, 13 have come as half time / full time results too, with all 13 coming in the last 15 matches.
Again, one of the exceptions came against Iceland this year, though we’d expect a more competent display over the 90 this time round at Wembley, and with players looking to prove themselves to the manager, the half time / full time market looks to be another one worth a flutter for the hosts.