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Prior to the first leg in Madrid, I’m sure Chelsea fans would’ve taken a 1-1 draw back to Stamford Bridge, though on balance of play they might just feel they should have taken an advantage back.
Christian Pulisic’s opener came after a dominant opening 15 minutes from the Blues, though Karim Benzema’s finish cancelled out the American’s leaving it all to play for in the second leg.
Both sides followed up that result with domestic 2-0 victories at the weekend as Chelsea beat local rivals Fulham thanks to a brace from Kai Havertz, while Eder Militao and Casemiro were on the scoresheet for Los Blancos, so nothing has changed from the first leg in terms of form.
The Blues are now unbeaten in five games, with Benzema’s goal the only one they’ve managed to concede in that run, though Madrid haven’t lost a game themselves since January and have conceded just one in six now.
There’s little to suggest that this game won’t be any different to the last in terms of balance of play, and if anything being on home soil would theoretically benefit Thomas Tuchel’s men, albeit without the added bonus of fans.
The Blues actually had fewer shots and less possession at home on the weekend, though in truth they never looked uncomfortable and if anything that shows they can still come away with the win despite not dominating proceedings, which bodes well for them here.
That said, the Champions League experience is massively in the visitors’ favour here. Zinedine Zidane has won this competition four times, three of which have come as a manager as he’s won 11 of his 12 two legged knockout ties in charge of this side, despite playing the likes of Bayern Munich (twice), Man City (twice), Liverpool, Juventus, PSG, and Atletico Madrid in that time and that experience could prove vital against a young side that are in their first Champions League semi-final since 2014.
However, much of that success under Zidane came hand in hand with Cristiano Ronaldo, and since the Portuguese sensation left, the Spanish outfit have lost to both Ajax and Man City in the Champions League knockouts and have lacked that cutting edge that he always provided.
Unders The Market To Look At
The away goal in the first leg may just prove vital here. With 11 men on the pitch, the Blues have conceded a goal every 402 minutes on average under current management, which equates to a goal nearly every four and a half matches.
That suggest Madrid may struggle to find the net here as they’ve drawn a blank in half of their last six outings, while at the weekend they were unable to break through Osasuna’s backline until the final fifteen minutes of the game.
Chelsea will try and keep this contest as close as possible, especially seeing as the onus is on the visitors to score and an ‘Unders’ bet looks the smart play here despite the obvious goalscoring capabilities of both sides.
Five of Madrid’s last six outings have seen under 2.5 goals land, while 20 of Tuchel’s 23 games in charge have seen the same outcome, including all five European clashes, with over half of those seeing just the one strike or none at all.