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Chelsea took a 1-0 win in the first leg in Bucharest as Olivier Giroud scored an overhead stunner, and we wouldn’t expect this clash to see too much goal-mouth action either.
Atletico have been a little more attacking than usual domestically this season under Diego Simeone, with only Barcelona outgunning them, but just one of their last seven in all competitions have featured more than two goals.
Chelsea had been conceding quite a lot under Frank Lampard, but they’ve been virtually impregnable under Thomas Tuchel so far.
In 12 matches under the German, the Blues have shipped just two goals and shut their opponents out on 10 occasions, with both of those concessions coming away from home.
They’re currently on a run of five consecutive clean sheets, as in addition to Atletico, they’ve also denied Man Utd, Liverpool, Everton and Leeds.
Both Teams To Score (No)
11 of those 12 games under new management also saw fewer than three goals, and that market is understandably at a short price here. 41 of Atletico’s last 60 Champions League games have seen under 2.5 goals land, but there may be better value backing at least one team to draw a blank.
That’s been the case in 44 of Atletico’s last 64 in this competition, including 16 of the past 22, as well as five of Chelsea’s seven matches this term.
Atletico’s main priority this season will be to land the league title given the position they find themselves in, but Diego Simeone has a clean bill of health and he won’t be resting any players here.
Tuchel is without suspended duo Jorginho and Mason Mount, while Tammy Abraham and Thiago Silva are major doubts, but Chelsea have enough depth to their squad to cope without them.
Chelsea To Win And Under 2.5 Goals
As much as Silva’s experience is missed, the Brazilian has been absent since early February and Chelsea have still been racking up the clean sheets, while with N’Golo Kane and Mateo Kovacic available, Jorginho is replaceable in midfield.
Mount is arguably the biggest loss, but Kai Havertz has been improving, while Hakim Ziyech, Timo Werner and Olivier Giroud also leave Tuchel with plenty of attacking options.
Chelsea are an impressive W9-D13-L3 against Spanish sides since 2006/07 and with a strong rearguard action, should complete the job here.
Atletico barely had a sniff of their goal in the first leg but will have to show a little more ambition this time around, though that will only play into Chelsea’s hands with the London club good on the counter.
Of the Blues’ eight wins under Tuchel, four ended 1-0, three finished 2-0, while the other was a 2-1 success. Moreover, each of Atletico’s past four defeats since December have finished 1-0 or 2-0.