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Celtic finally got back to winning ways as they downed rock-bottom Hamilton 2-0 last time out, ending a run of four games without a victory in the process.
The Hoops were arguably the better team in their defeat to Rangers at the start of this run, while they were reduced in number across three stalemates over this period as 13 players had to self-isolate following some controversial warm-weather training in Dubai.
However, even with most of the regulars back in the fold, they could only manage a modest scoreline against weak opposition on Wednesday.
St. Mirren romped to a 5-1 win away at Dundee Utd that same evening, though that was an unusual goal-haul for Jim Goodwin’s side and they’re typically involved in much lower-scoring affairs.
13 of their 17 appearances across all competitions since November have featured fewer than three goals, including seven of the past eight, so we’d expect their latest outing to prove a flash in the pan.
It would be no surprise to see under 2.5 goals land here, with four of Celtic’s past five league outings also going that way. However, after such a calamitous defence of their title, it’s hard to fully trust Celtic’s rearguard and we’d steer clear of backing the hosts to necessarily keep a clean sheet.
Still, when excluding clashes with league leaders Rangers, as well as the three recent stalemates when fielding relatively weakened sides against Livingston (twice) and Hibernian, Neil Lennon’s side have now won five on the trot.
Celtic To Win And Under 3.5 Goals
Four of those five triumphs since December have been accompanied by clean sheets, with three of these finishing 2-0 and the other two games ending 3-0.
Meanwhile, over the same period, each of St. Mirren’s four defeats have seen them fail to score, as three finished 2-0 and the other 1-0.
Celtic have still won 13 of 14 head-to-heads since 2013/14, including all six since 2019, and we’d get behind them to continue consolidating second place.
Those 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 scorelines are all distinct possibilities, and indeed St. Mirren have failed to register in each of their past three visits to Celtic Park.
However, the Hoops remain somewhat fragile at the back and are more than capable of conceding. Celtic have won either 2-0 or 2-1 in four of the last five head-to-heads, and we’d prefer to get behind them by coupling the match outcome with under 3.5 goals. In fact, 10 of Celtic’s 13 league wins since late August have seen a maximum of three strikes.