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Recent Form
Burnley were downed by Man Utd after strikes from Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford sealed their fate, but though it did take until stoppage time for the second goal, the Red Devils did have five times as many shots on target (5) as well as 61% of the possession.
Villa, meanwhile, were put to the sword 3-0 by a resurgent Hornets outfit under Nigel Pearson, even with Dean Smith’s men having an extra man for the final half hour with the score just 1-0 at the time.
It’s been at the sharp end that Burnley have been struggling as they’ve netted just three goals across their last seven outings, though it should be noted that they’ve endured some tough fixtures including the likes of the Manchester duo and Spurs.
Only two of these matches came against teams now in the bottom-half of the table, Newcastle and Bournemouth, both of which they scored past in 1-0 victories.
In fact, they’ve gone an impressive W6-D2-L1 from their nine outings versus bottom-half sides this term, with that sole defeat coming against Arsenal back in gameweek two, whilst the Clarets have won each of the last four of them to nil. Moreover, they won all four of their fixtures at Turf Moor without conceding.
Burnley To Beat Aston Villa
The Villans have lost five of their last six outings and remain the worst travelling side in the division with just four points from 10 trips.
They may have a much-improved record of four wins from their last six when facing similar bottom-half sides across all venues since October, though the only two of these games that came on the road were against the two teams that remain below them in the table, Norwich and Watford.
Overall, you have to give Sean Dyche’s men the upper hand, but though they’ve been winning to nil against the weaker sides, we’re wary of the goalscoring threat the visitors possess and we’ll stick with the simple outright market.
Burnley To Beat Aston Villa At 4/5
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