Recent Form
Only three points separate 15th-placed Brighton and Watford down in 19th, as the bottom six is fast becoming a full-on dogfight for survival.
Watford may remain mired in the bottom three, but they possess sufficient quality to haul themselves upwards and on current form it’s the Seagulls who appear in bigger danger.
Watford had produced a remarkable resurgence under Nigel Pearson (who guided Leicester to survival from a perilous position the year before they won the title), winning four of six unbeaten league games.
However, defeats to Villa and Everton in their last two, sandwiching a cup exit to League One outfit Tranmere, has somewhat checked their momentum.
Despite those most recent results, we’re surprised to see their hosts so close to evens in the betting. Brighton have now gone a pitiful W2-D5-L8 since early November across all competitions and even their form at the Amex has deserted them, where they’re W1-D3-L3 over this period.
Given Watford have won three of their last four against bottom-six outfits, including a pair of 3-0 wins over Villa and Bournemouth under new management, we’d have to get the visitors onside in some capacity.
Watford do need to learn to hold onto a lead though, having gone 1-0 and 2-0 up against Villa and Everton respectively in their last two outings.
It does however continue a series of fast starts under Pearson and they’ve now bagged the opening goal in seven of their past eight games, with the exception a goalless stalemate hosting Spurs, while they scored the first two goals in five of these outings.
Watford To Score First
It’s been the opposite story for Brighton, who have conceded first in five of six matches across all competitions in 2020 so far.
Given this includes falling behind 1-0, 3-0 and 2-0 against fellow bottom-six outfits Villa, Bournemouth and West Ham respectively in the last three outings before any response down the other end, the first team to score market appears highly profitable.
Watford +0.25 Asian Handicap
We’d also back the Hornets to take the spoils, albeit taking some cover on the handicap in case of the draw. Brighton have lost 73% of their Premier League matches since their promotion where they conceded the first of the game in the first half, as we expect them to.
Meanwhile, Pearson will be deeply unhappy with the manner in which his team has thrown away six vital points in their last two games, and we’d expect them to rectify that here against a team with limited fightback.
Watford To Score First At 13/10
Watford +0.25 Asian Handicap At 109/100
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