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Recent Form
Villa were awful in their 6-1 humiliation hosting City on Sunday, but though Dean Smith will want to put the result down to a poor record against the top sides, it will have delivered a major psychological blow regardless.
That’s especially the case considering they’ve now been leapfrogged by a resurgent Watford and occupy a place in the drop zone, though they can at least take some comfort from Brighton’s recent results.
Graham Potter’s men have won just twice from 12 fixtures across all tournaments (W2-D3-L7) and even those came against teams in dire straits.
They beat Arsenal under Freddie Ljungberg at the start of December and a crisis-hit Bournemouth at the end of that month, with the Cherries having now lost nine of their last 11 top-flight games.
However, Villa haven’t exactly enjoyed much success on their travels with five of their last six victories in all competitions coming on home turf.
Away from home, the visitors have lost six of their last nine games, and though stalemates at Man Utd and Leicester were encouraging, defeats to the likes of Watford and Fulham leave us unconvinced of their prospects.
Brighton have largely performed well against the six teams below them in the table this term, going W3-D2-L1, and though the defeat did come when facing Villa themselves, it’s clear that both sides benefit massively from home support.
Indeed, Brighton and Villa would be 10th and 15th respectively in a table base on home results, whereas they’d be 17th and 19th in an away table.
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Under 2.5 Goals
Villa have conceded at least twice in eight of their 11 road trips this term, though we wouldn’t expect their hosts to breach that threshold.
Indeed, the Seagulls haven’t seen too many thrillers at the Amex of late with six of their last seven there across all tournaments featuring fewer than three goals, while across all venues, seven of their 10 encounters with bottom-half sides this season have also seen a maximum of two goals.
The midlands side also have a concerning injury list to contend with. Veteran keeper Pepe Reina may provide relief between the sticks with both Tom Heaton and Jed Steer sidelined, but further forwards striker and summer signing Wesley is yet to be replaced after picking up a long-term injury, while goalscoring midfielder John McGinn won’t be back until late march.
To make matters worse, back-up striker Johnathan Kodija could miss this one through illness, so while ‘Unders’ would be our preferred bet, a low-scoring home win is also worth consideration.
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