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Things are seemingly beginning to click for Brighton, and although they’re certainly not safe from relegation just yet, they’re absolutely on the right track.
Two wins from their last three matches is a strong return for a team in their position, and they were also impressive in defeat against Man United and could consider themselves unlucky to have come away empty handed there, though that’s often been the case for the south coast side this season.
Brighton would be fourth in a table of expected goals, and third when it comes to expected goals against, so there’s little more Graham Potter can do on the tactical front, as he just needs his side to be more clinical.
There have been signs of that recently, not least in their 3-0 win against relegation rivals Newcastle, though we’d definitely be surprised if they were to run away with this one.
It’s surprising to see the Seagulls so short in the 1x2 market as although they look improved, they’ve still won just two of their 15 home games this campaign, with no side in the league winning fewer.
They do often keep their games close though, as prior to that victory over Newcastle, each of their last 13 home games had been decided by a maximum of one goal either way, and that’s exactly how we’d expect this game to pan out against Everton.
Everton To Beat Brighton
Everton are still very much in the hunt for a Champions League spot, as they sit five points off fourth but with a crucial game in hand, and with European football certainly there to play for they look surprisingly long.
If this game were at Goodison Park, you’d almost be more hesitant to back the Toffees, especially considering that have the best away form in the league proportional to when they play at home, picking up 0.87 points per game more on the road.
Handicap Draw (Brighton +1 goals)
Everton are winless in three, though they haven’t gone four games without victory since the beginning of November, and that gives us every incentive to get behind the visitors here, who are on a run of W7-D2-L1 away from home, with that only defeat coming against Thomas Tuchel’s high flying Chelsea.
Fittingly, eight of Everton’s nine away games against the current bottom half this season have been separated by a maximum of one strike, including all six of their victories against such sides, so coupled with Brighton’s record of remaining competitive at home, the Everton one goal winning margin looks an incredibly long price to get behind.