Denmark can be highly satisfied with their debut in League A and few would have given them a chance of topping a group featuring Belgium and England going into the final game.
They’ll need a win here to do so, but they arrive in good form having won five of six unbeaten matches since an opening day loss to the Red Devils, taking four points off the Three Lions in the process.
That defeat in the reverse fixture is actually Denmark’s sole loss over 90 minutes in an incredible 41 outings going back to June 2016 (excluding a 3-0 defeat to Slovakia a couple of years ago when a dispute between the players and the Danish FA saw a second-string side take to the field).
Although this is a free swing for the Danes, their success has largely been based upon a steely rearguard action and hoping Christian Erikson can deliver further forwards.
He’s not had a good time at Inter Milan, but he keeps performing for the national side and only Israel’s Eran Zahavi and Norway’s Erling Haaland have scored more than the four goals he’s managed in this tournament.
Denmark won’t be taking the game to Belgium on the front foot, and the hosts are tough enough to break down as it is as they demonstrated against England on Sunday.
Roberto Martinez’s side have conceded more than once in just one of their last 17 appearances, at Wembley, though their clean sheet against England this week was their first in six matches.
Belgium can have no room for complacency and no doubt they’ll be mindful of a final day defeat to Switzerland in the inaugural Nations League that cost them top spot.
Belgium To Win And Over 1.5 Goals
Denmark’s defence has taken a hit however as Kasper Schmeichel was forced off against Iceland last time out following a nasty collision between his head and Albert Gudmundsson’s knee.
He’s an integral part of their efforts, and his absence will threaten to undermine their stellar defensive record.
Portugal and Italy are the only teams in League A to concede fewer goals than Denmark’s three, though two of those were supplied by Belgium in the reverse fixture.
Martinez has a couple of concerns with Thomas Meunier and Alex Witsel unavailable, but he has depth at his disposal and key men Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne and Dries Mertens will be leading the charge.
The 12 goals Belgium have scored is more than any team across the four leagues, while they were joint-top with Germany for output in World Cup qualification and held the best record outright in the Euro qualifiers, so we’d back them to take advantage of Schmeichel’s absence.
It’s hard to ignore Belgium’s record on home turf where they’ve won 10 of 12 unbeaten matches now, as they scored at least twice in each victory.
Denmark represent a threat, but their long unbeaten run has benefited from kind qualification groups as they’ve largely avoided real heavyweights, which encourages us to get behind Belgium for a trio of home wins this week.